bill berry

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Political Prognosticating, 2016-style


Stepping out on a limb here. HRC will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. The Bern won’t be felt by enough people. It’s over. Sorry about that!

Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Natural, almost inevitable, consequence of the last nine years. Sorry about that too!

Happy to explain my reasoning. Discuss if you must. I’m moving on to stuff that’s still in doubt.


I later provided more context in the comments:

One of the things I loved about my Williams experience was empirical political science. At the time, the Roper Center was located on campus, and I got to use all their polling data to test theories from a statistical point of view. It made it more “real” and less theoretical for me. It also had me using computers which I loved then and now. In this case, I’m just reading the tea leaves, looking at delegates won, upcoming polls, how the delegates get apportioned, etc. and I don’t see how Bernie can win.

In 2008, I closely followed certain reporters, including Chuck Todd and Nate Silver, and came to understand sometime in March that Obama had the nomination locked up. Even though Hillary was contesting, etc. Despite all the talk about the “super delegates,” there was just no way Obama could lose the nomination at a certain point without totally destroying the Democratic Party.

It’s different this year. I just don’t see how either Hillary or Trump can be beaten.

I should also say that in 1992 I drove home from work to vote for Bill Bradley in the Democratic primary even though the polls had already closed in much of the country, and I knew Bill Clinton was going to be the nominee. So definitely don’t mean to suggest we shouldn’t vote for who we think is best. I do wish we had better choices. And I hope the right decision gets made in November, or heaven help us all!

In some other 2016 Facebook post, I wished aloud that Joe Biden was running, proving I was both ahead of – and behind – the curve.